Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has proposed shifting 20,000 acceptance places in the care sector out of Employment for Skill Development and into Specified Skilled Worker (i), leaving the sector's five-year total unchanged at 160,700. The draft went to the Immigration Services Agency's expert panel on the two systems on 19 October 2026, and it exists because the Specified Skilled Worker (i) ceiling for care is projected to be reached in the second half of fiscal 2027.
The numbers on the table
The current allocation for care dates from the Cabinet decision of 23 January 2026: 126,900 places for Specified Skilled Worker (i) across fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2028, and 33,800 for Employment for Skill Development across fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028. The revision would take Specified Skilled Worker (i) to 146,900 and cut Employment for Skill Development to 13,800, with the sector total held at 160,700.
Across all fields the package puts Specified Skilled Worker (i) at 825,400, up 19,700, and Employment for Skill Development at 406,500, down 19,700, leaving the combined ceiling of 1,231,900 unmoved. The 300-place gap against the care shift comes from aviation, where about 300 airport ground handling places travel the other way.
Why the ceiling is close
The agency's paper puts Specified Skilled Worker (i) residents in care at 79,884 at the end of June 2026, against that 126,900 ceiling.
It also sets out when a reallocation is permitted: demand for one status must be running significantly above what was assumed, and the change must not significantly disadvantage people using either system. That second condition sits awkwardly beside a 20,000-place cut to the training route. The document's own comparison: technical intern training in care certified 5,810 people at the first level in fiscal 2025, against an Employment for Skill Development allocation averaging about 16,900 a year.
What hitting a ceiling actually stops
Where the acceptance number is expected to be exceeded, the operating policy has the competent minister ask the Minister of Justice to suspend issuance of Certificates of Eligibility temporarily, and ask for issuance to resume if recruitment need returns. For Employment for Skill Development the equivalent step is a suspension of new certifications. The ceiling therefore bites on the entry route first. Short-stay entry is governed separately and is untouched by sector acceptance numbers.
Food service is the working example. As of 16 October 2026, Certificate of Eligibility applications in that field received up to 6 February 2026 were still being processed in receipt order, with 732 pending from 7 to 28 February, 1,825 from March and 4,804 from 1 to 12 April. Applications received on or after 13 April 2026 are in principle not granted.
If you already hold Specified Skilled Worker (i) in care
A suspension does not reach you. Through the food service suspension, extension applications have continued to be examined and approved normally, and change-of-status applications moving a Specified Skilled Worker (i) holder between employers in the same field have all been approved rather than cut off by date. Nothing in this draft alters your criteria or paperwork. Current criteria are on the Specified Skilled Worker visa page.
If you are moving into care from another status in Japan
This is the group carrying a deadline it cannot see. In food service, the change-of-status route was cut off by receipt date for most categories: applications received by 12 April 2026 were processed and later ones are in principle not approved, with technical intern and Designated Activities transfers into medical and welfare facility catering given a later cutoff of 30 September 2026.
If care is where you intend to go, the filing date is what protects you, not the date your current status expires. The route is on the changing status of residence page.
Applying from outside Japan carries the sharper version: Certificate of Eligibility issuance is suspended first and restarts slowest, and a certificate already applied for is no protection once a cutoff lands behind it.
What has not been decided
This is a draft. The panel discussed it on 19 October 2026 and the minutes have not been posted. No public comment case appears on the agency's e-Gov listing as of 28 October 2026, and no promulgation or Cabinet decision date has been published.
The page to watch is the agency's food service application status page, where a cutoff date is announced in practice. If care reaches its ceiling, the notice will take that form, and the receipt date it names will already be in the past.
Sources: ISA — 15th expert panel on the Specified Skilled Worker and Employment for Skill Development systems, 資料３－２ care sector allocation change (PDF), 資料３－１ basic approach to reallocation (PDF), 資料１－１ revisions to the sector operating policies (PDF), 資料１－２ sector operating policies, draft (PDF), ISA — Specified Skilled Worker (i) food service application status